As per an initiative advocated by President Donald Trump and spearheaded by Elon Musk, early 2025 saw a huge hype over the $5,000 checks that would supposedly be distributed by Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Due to the DOGE making budget cuts, the offering was that DOGE dividends should be distributed to all taxpaying citizens. Despite the year being at the halfway mark, no such DOGE checks have been received in the mail as yet, and it probably won’t be coming anytime soon.
It is important to look at the origins of these proposed DOGE checks and consider what experts are saying about these dividend checks that may not materialize.
The origins of these DOGE dividend checks
Tracing the origins behind the idea of sending these DOGE checks to citizens leads us to a tweet that was shared by James Fishback. According to Fishback, CEO of the investment firm Azoria, the federal government should return about 20% of its savings from the DOGE initiatives directly to American taxpayers. This proposal led to the idea of offering one-time $5,000 checks to eligible taxpayers. Elon Musk responded to Fishback’s idea by saying, “Will check with the president.” President Donald Trump seemed to agree that it was a good idea.
A simple tweet sparked online interest, and for weeks, “DOGE check,” “DOGE stimulus,” and “tax refund” were searched in volumes on Google. With headings like “$5K Check Pending” and “Claim Your DOGE Dividend Today” trending, spam emails and phishing scams also became part of the hype. Thus far, no legislation has been passed to authorize such payments.
By late May, the U.S. Treasury still made no plans and provided any guidance to advance the bill. DOGE checks remain a viral idea and not a policy.
Experts look at the math behind these checks
Media houses like MSNBC News and the Austin American-Statesman have shared information that the math does not add up. According to Musk, the DOGE’s proposed goal was to have an estimated $2 trillion in savings by the 2026 election. With that initial savings figure in mind, Fishback’s 20% proposal would then lead to the $5,000 stimulus checks. However, these proposed $5,000 stimulus checks cannot be offered to citizens as the DOGE has not reached its initial goal of $2 trillion in savings.
As reported on May 27, 2025, the DOGE savings stand at merely $175 billion, which is less than 10% of the overall goal. If these DOGE stimulus checks were to be sent out now, each taxpaying household would receive about $430.
Another core point of the proposal is that only taxpayers qualify for this payment, leaving all lower-income American households out of the equation completely.
The future of these DOGE checks
Although the idea of distributing DOGE checks became extremely popular on social media and via campaign emails, the reality of receiving these checks does not quite match the dream of distributing these checks. Thus far, no member of Congress has mentioned the prospect of “DOGE checks” in any official newsletter for the year.
The silence can only be indicative of the fact that despite the amount of attention these DOGE checks received, these checks don’t seem to have received Congressional support or bipartisan backing. The future of these DOGE checks does seem bleak, as has been reported by several media houses.
The reality of distributing these $5,000 checks to each taxpaying household would cost more or less $400 billion, and the distribution of such a hefty sum would need to be approved in a federal budget. It is hard to fathom where this much money would come from. The only $5,000 check that can be confirmed is the one that the SSA has sent out this May.
